Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Small Business Exposure and Sensitivity
Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake
Dataset Identification:
Resource Abstract:
The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners
from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones
and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8)
earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible
event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside,
San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis
of small businesses in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market
variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage
of the exposure of each business establishment size category to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the
direct effect of the earthquake on small businesses. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report
that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market
data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California
Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level
labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by business
establishment size.
Citation
Title Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Small Business Exposure and Sensitivity
Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake